1. How predictive are different indicators for high school graduation, college enrollment, and degree completion for different groups of English Learners?
Most reporting on the educational attainment of English Learners (ELs) focuses on standardized test performance. However, other indicators—including students’ course grades and behaviors—are more predictive of high school graduation and college outcomes among non-English Learners.
Using these indicators can improve schools’ ability to understand the needs of English Learners, enabling them to provide better support and increase students’ educational attainment.
The study followed students who started ninth grade for the first time in the fall of 2008 through the fall of 2017 in district-run (non-charter) schools in Chicago Public Schools (CPS).
Students were grouped according to their English Learner status at the beginning of ninth grade: 1) Former English Learners; 2) Long-term English Learners without an Individualized Education Plan (IEP); 3) Long-term English Learners with an IEP; 4) Late-arriving English Learners; and 5) Never English Learners.
Key Findings
- GPAs were the most predictive of high school graduation, college enrollment, and degree completion for all English Learner groups, followed by attendance and course failure rates. These were more predictive than level of English proficiency, standardized test scores, suspensions, and background characteristics.
- Combining GPA and attendance data, or course failure rates and attendance data, provided the best prediction of high school graduation for most English Learner groups. (except long-term English Learners with IEPs)
- The combination of GPA with test scores was the best prediction of which students eventually attained a college degree for all English Learner groups.
- English Learners with greater than a 2.0 GPA were very likely (~90%) to graduate high school, except for students with Individualized Education Plans (IEPs).
- Only active English Learners in high school with attendance above 95% were very likely to graduate (around 90% graduated), while former and never English Learners, were very likely to graduate with 90% attendance or higher.
- Only students with at least a “B” average (3.0 GPA) in ninth grade had greater than a 1-in-4 chance of attaining a college credential, across all groups, except for long-term English Learners with IEPs.
